Synergy Wealth Insights | March 2026
March 2026
Market Update
March Has Been a Bumpy Month
One quick note before we get into the markets: based on feedback I have received, I will be publishing these updates every other month going forward, or more frequently when markets or planning topics call for it. If you would rather not receive these updates, just reach out and I am happy to adjust.
If you have been watching the news this month, you know the headlines have been noisy. Rising oil prices, geopolitical conflict, and a weaker-than-expected jobs report all hit the market in a short window of time. I want to be upfront: these are real factors worth paying attention to. But I also want to put them in perspective, because what we are experiencing right now is well within the range of normal market behavior. The S&P 500 is down roughly 4% year to date. In a typical year, the average intra-year decline is around 14%, even in years that finish positive. By that measure, this is a modest pullback, not a crisis.
The market has navigated far worse than this. Think about what long-term investors have lived through over the past century. Two World Wars. The Korean War. Vietnam. The Gulf War. September 11. The 2008 financial crisis. A global pandemic. In every one of those moments, there were voices saying the world had fundamentally changed and that recovery was uncertain. And in every single case, the long-term investor who stayed the course came out ahead. This current period of geopolitical tension is real, but it is nowhere near the scale of those events, and the market's track record through far worse is remarkable.
There is also something worth remembering that often gets overlooked during down markets: pullbacks can actually work in your favor. When prices dip, reinvested dividends buy more shares. Interest payments in bonds and cash get reinvested at the same lower levels. And if you are still in the accumulation phase, regular contributions go further than they did when prices were higher. The investors who came out strongest after every major downturn in history were often those who stayed disciplined and kept investing right through the discomfort.
More importantly, I want to remind you that we have planned for moments like this one. Your portfolio was built around your specific goals and your personal risk tolerance, not the market's mood on any given week. Depending on your situation, a meaningful portion of your portfolio may be in bonds, cash, or other assets that behave very differently than equities during a selloff. That balance is intentional, and it is doing exactly what it was designed to do right now.
If you have been following my notes over the past several months, you may recall that I flagged the potential for increased volatility ahead. While no one can predict exactly when or how markets will move, the environment we are navigating now is one I had been watching closely. I also want you to know that we were not sitting still this month. Further down, I share exactly what we did inside portfolios in response to this environment.
What Is Driving the Volatility?
The primary driver this month has been the U.S.-Iran conflict and its impact on global energy markets. Oil prices climbed sharply as shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz faced disruption, with major tanker operators rerouting vessels around the southern tip of Africa. That sent energy costs higher across the board and reignited inflation concerns that many investors thought were fading.
At the same time, the February jobs report showed an unexpected decline in payrolls, with employers cutting more positions than they added. That combination of rising prices and slowing growth is what economists call stagflation risk, and it is the kind of environment that gives the Federal Reserve very limited room to maneuver. The Fed cannot easily cut rates to boost growth without risking a further spike in inflation.
Technology stocks, which led much of the market's gains in recent years, also faced pressure as investors reassessed valuations and questioned how quickly artificial intelligence investments will translate into real earnings growth.
| Index | YTD | 1 Year | 3 Year | 10 Year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | -4.34% | +15.08% | +17.66% | +13.79% |
| Russell 2000 | -0.89% | +20.90% | +12.46% | +9.51% |
| MSCI World | -3.57% | +16.07% | +16.30% | +11.48% |
| Bloomberg U.S. Aggregate | +0.04% | +4.36% | +3.71% | +1.70% |
What We Did in Your Portfolio This Month
We recently reviewed and rebalanced a majority of client portfolios to make sure everything is still lined up with your goals and the current market environment. Think of it like a tune-up: we trimmed areas that had grown a bit too large and added back to areas that had shrunk, keeping your portfolio balanced the way it was designed.
In many portfolios, we added exposure to high-quality U.S. companies -- those with strong, consistent earnings and low debt levels. The goal is to add a layer of stability during periods of market volatility like the one we are navigating right now.
A quick note: Not every portfolio was rebalanced, and not every portfolio received these adjustments. Every account is managed individually based on your specific plan and goals. If you are curious about what changed in your account specifically, just give me a call or send me a note and I am happy to walk you through it.
It is worth remembering that we have been here before. In spring 2025, the S&P 500 dropped nearly 19% from its record high over tariff concerns before recovering and finishing the year up more than 16%. Short-term discomfort rarely defines long-term outcomes.
Do Not Let Fear Make Your Portfolio Decisions
One of the most reliable ways investors hurt their long-term returns is by reacting emotionally to short-term market swings. When headlines turn scary, the urge to "do something" can feel overwhelming. But selling during a downturn locks in losses and often means missing the recovery that follows.
A well-diversified, plan-based portfolio is built specifically for moments like this one. Before making any changes, ask yourself a simple question: has my financial goal changed, or have just the headlines? If your goal has not changed, your portfolio likely should not either.
That said, volatility can be a useful reminder to review your overall strategy. If your circumstances have shifted, or if you are not sure your current allocation still reflects where you want to go, that is exactly the kind of conversation worth having sooner rather than later.
Why Staying the Course Has Paid Off
Despite the noise, there are still constructive signals out there. Wall Street analysts broadly expect solid gains for the full year 2026. Corporate earnings remain on solid footing for many sectors, and fiscal stimulus and AI investment continue to provide long-term tailwinds.
One of the most important things to keep in mind right now is what history tells us about moments like this one. Bear markets, while painful, have been relatively short-lived. On average, bear markets have lasted around 12 months with an average decline of about 33%. Bull markets, by contrast, have averaged roughly 67 months with gains of around 265%. The math is firmly on the side of the patient investor.
The research is equally clear on what happens when investors try to time their way out of volatile markets. Missing just a handful of the market's best days, which tend to cluster right around the worst periods, can dramatically reduce long-term returns. The investors who have come out ahead are the ones who stayed invested through downturns and let their portfolios recover. Every major crisis in modern history, from oil shocks and recessions to geopolitical upheaval, has ultimately been followed by recovery and new highs for long-term investors.
Geopolitical conflicts, while deeply unsettling, have historically had a limited long-term impact on equity markets when conditions eventually stabilize. As always, my job is to help you stay grounded, make thoughtful decisions, and keep your financial plan working toward your goals regardless of what the market is doing week to week. I am here whenever you want to talk through what any of this means for you personally.
The chart below shows why perspective matters more than panic. Significant intra-year pullbacks are a normal part of investing - what history consistently shows is that staying invested through the volatility has paid off.
The Retirement Questions Most People Wait Too Long to Ask
I have these conversations every week. Clients who are 5, 10, even 20 years from retirement who are not sure where they stand. The good news is that asking the question early is almost always enough to change the outcome. Here are the things I wish more people would bring up sooner.
Most people contribute to their 401(k) and assume they are on track. But "on track" means something specific: having a projected income in retirement that covers your actual lifestyle. Do you know what that number is for you? A quick projection using your current balance, savings rate, and expected retirement age can tell you in about 15 minutes whether you have a gap or a cushion. That clarity is worth a lot.
Your health, your cash flow needs, your other income sources, your spouse's situation - they all factor in. For some people, waiting longer makes a lot of sense. For others, claiming earlier is absolutely the right call. What I find most often is that people make this decision without ever sitting down to run through the options. That is where I can help. Before you decide, let's talk through what makes the most sense for your situation specifically.
Workplace retirement plans are powerful, but relying on a single account type creates unnecessary risk in retirement, specifically tax risk. If all of your savings are in a traditional 401(k), every dollar you withdraw in retirement is taxable income. Building a mix of pre-tax, Roth, and taxable accounts gives you flexibility to manage your tax bracket year by year in retirement. That flexibility can be worth tens of thousands of dollars over time.
Fidelity estimates the average couple will spend over $300,000 on healthcare costs in retirement, not counting long-term care. Yet it is the last thing most people factor into their retirement budget. A Health Savings Account (HSA), if you are eligible, is one of the most tax-efficient tools available for covering these costs. Contributions are tax-deductible, growth is tax-free, and withdrawals for qualified medical expenses are tax-free. That is a triple tax advantage you cannot find anywhere else.
This material is for general information only and is not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. There is no assurance that the views or strategies discussed are suitable for all investors or will yield positive outcomes. Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index (S&P 500) is a capitalization-weighted index of 500 stocks designed to measure performance of the broad domestic economy through changes in the aggregate market value of 500 stocks representing all major industries. There is no guarantee that a diversified portfolio will enhance overall returns or outperform a non-diversified portfolio. Diversification does not protect against market risk.
Questions about your portfolio or how recent market events affect your plan? Let's connect for a complimentary review.
Schedule a Review: 414-299-0003
121 Front St, Suite 4 | Beaver Dam, WI 53916
spencer.butterbrodt@synergyboundwealth.com
www.synergyboundwealth.com